Compare the price you took with the price the market closed at. Beating the close regularly is the clearest sign your bets are priced well.
CLV
+7.32%
Your chance
45.45%
Closing chance
48.78%
Points gained
+3.33
You beat the close. The market moved towards your side after you bet.
Why CLV is the real scoreboard
Individual bets are noisy — a good bet loses often and a bad bet wins often. Closing line value strips the luck out: if you regularly take prices better than where the market settles, you are finding value, whatever this week's results looked like.
A single result means little. Track CLV across dozens of bets and look at the average. Consistently positive CLV over a large sample is the closest thing to proof that an approach is working.